The issue of electing presidents by Electoral College (EC) or national popular vote is framed as the rights of states vs. the principle of one person, one vote. But the elections of 2000, 2004, and 2016 illustrate a more fundamental probabilistic defect in the EC: the president can be chosen based on coin-flip outcomes in a few indecisive states.
States could reduce this randomness of EC outcomes by adopting a simple rule: My state’s electors will be determined by either the state’s vote or the national vote, whichever is more decisive.
This rule would push the EC outcome in the direction of the national vote, but it would curb cases like 1960 when the national vote itself was a coin flip. Swing states could still be pivotal if they vote more decisively than the national electorate.